October 11, 2012
USDA has announced their first estimate of the 2012 pecan crop at 308.6 million inshell pounds. The National Pecan Shellers Association at their September meeting estimated the crop at 309 million inshell pounds while the Louisiana and Texas estimates ranged from 265 to 282 million inshell pounds. Cold storage holdings through September 30, 2012, are estimated to be 153 million inshell equivalent pounds. Assuming we consume the same quantity in October 2012 as we did in October 2011, we would expect a carryout of 120 to 125 million inshell pound equivalent. We utilize the October 31st cold storage number as the official carryout number as October is a very large shipping month yet very little new crop inshell will move during this month.
Listed below is a supply/consumption chart reflecting the latest information received. | Crop Years | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | | Oct. Cold Strg Carry-In (USDA) | 126,702 | 70,231 | 169,175 | 99,511 | 67,106 | 88,625 | 125,000 | | USDA Final Crop Number | 206,300 | 387,305 | 202,080 | 302,020 | 293,740 | 269,700 | 308,600 | | Total Imports | 70,000 | 100,000 | 127,600 | 130,000 | 128,437 | 100,000 | 100,000 | | Total Supply | 403,002 | 557,536 | 498,855 | 531,531 | 489,283 | 458,325 | 533,600 | | Consumption | 332,771 | 388,361 | 399,344 | 464,425 | 400,658 | 333,325 | |
While consumption is estimated at 333 million inshell pounds, this includes exports to China which topped over 68 million for the 2011/12 crop year. China imported 24 million additional inshell pounds from the 2011/12 crop than the prior year’s crop and they did so at historical high prices. Consumption through all other channels is down significantly with domestic consumption taking the biggest hit.
This crop is considered the on-year cycle and early predictions indicate that even though last year’s “off-cycle” produced more pounds than the 2010/11 cycle, we will indeed produce more pounds in the 2012/13 cycle than last year. There was ample rainfall in all of the major producing areas for pecans this year which has allowed the trees to produce a good crop set. The Southeast is just beginning to shake a few trees to gather supply to move off to China and the gift pack industry, but major harvesting is not expected to begin until the early November period. The West Texas, New Mexico and Northern Mexico regions also experienced good growing conditions throughout the year and are expected to produce a good crop. Typically these nuts do not come to market until late November. There are some reports out of Mexico that drought conditions may affect a portion of their crop producing a less than desirable quality while other regions of Mexico are expecting a good quality crop. Mexico is predicted to have an on-cycle as well.
China along with the gift pack segment of the industry is anxious for the first harvest to begin and China is again prebooking with growers for their first harvest. The 2012 Chinese New Year was in late January. The Chinese New Year for 2013 is February 10th which will allow China to take more time in their acquisition which must load out and sail in a time period that will allow arrival and processing prior to their holiday.
We will continue to keep you informed as the crop continues to mature. The next USDA estimate will be released in early December.
If you have any questions or wish to discuss these estimates further, please give us a call at 800-469-6607.
Cordially,
Helen Watts
Executive Vice President
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